RISC exhibiting at APPEA 2020!

RISC is exhibiting at the APPEA 2020 this May in Perth! This year the conference will drive in-depth discussion and debate for the industry and its leaders with the theme – Energy for a better Australia. RISC’s Managing Director Martin Wilkes and Head of Geoscience Ian Cockerill are set to present in the concurrent sessions of the technical program over the course of the three days; details for each presentation are provided below.

APPEA is the largest annual upstream oil and gas event in the southern hemisphere, and an event not to be missed. Make sure to register now and head down to visit us at booth #108.

Exhibition Details

18-21 May 2020 | Perth Convention & Exhibition Centre | RISC Advisory Booth #108 – view the exhibition floor plan here.

Presentation Details

Australian Exploration Review 2019

Session 15 | PESA – 2019 in Review | Wednesday 20th May | 2:00 pm

Presenter: Ian Cockerill – Head of Geoscience

Australia has continued to punch above its weight for exploration success in the region after yielding a series of impressive discoveries in 2019 despite a contraction in exploration activity.  Compiling exploration data for changes in permitting, seismic acquisition, and exploration and appraisal drilling shows a downward trend in activity in 2019. However, despite drilling only 21 exploration wells, Australia rewarded explorers with seven onshore and three discoveries offshore.  A positive sign for future exploration was the award of 13 new offshore permits with committed work programs or cash bids totalling $223 million.

This is the first uptick in offshore permit awards since 2010. Santos farming into Armour’s South Nicholson Basin acreage and Conoco farming into 3D Oil’s Sorell basin acreage were the stand-out exploration farm-in deals of the year.  The exploration drilling highlights were the discoveries in the Vulcan Sub-basin (Bratwurst and Orchid) and the North Perth Basin (Beharra Springs Deep and West Erregulla).  2019 also saw successful appraisal drilling on the Corvus and Dorado discoveries as well as renewed exploration efforts in the Beetaloo Sub-basin unconventional plays.

Australia is set for an exciting of year of exploration ahead with further drilling planned in the North Perth Basin and other high impact exploration wells on the North West Shelf.

Martin is presenting on two topics in this concurrent session:

East coast gas crisis? With plenty of gas available, what’s the real issue?

Session 28 | Gas Markets – supply, demand and competition | Thursday 21st May | 11:15 – 1:00pm

Presenter:  Martin Wilkes – Managing Director

The East Coast of Australia has been experiencing some of the highest prices in the world, yet Australia is arguably now the world’s largest exporter of LNG.

In the last decade there has been a 4-fold increase in Australian Liquefied Natural Gas exports as 8 LNG projects have been brought online to join the existing NWSV and Darwin LNG projects, and we are now the world’s largest exporter of LNG. During this period gas prices in Western Australia have plummeted to historical lows, but at the same time gas prices in Eastern Australia have reached record highs, and there have been rising cries of shortages of gas on the East Coast,  With so much gas available how have we got ourselves into this position?

This presentation will look at the impact of technical, commercial and political developments that have contributed to the current position, including identifying, with the help of international analogues, the unforeseen consequences of historical decisions. Looking forward the presentation will show that the Australian gas market is not as unique as many may think and will again use international analogies to provide predictions on some of the, as yet unforeseen, outcomes of the current crisis facing the East Coast. Finally, the presentation will put forward a view that the issues on the East Coast are both manageable and resolvable and will show that resolution of the issues may not be as far away as many think.

The impact of north American shale gas on LNG pricing: What it means for Australia’s LNG and domestic gas future

Session 28 | Gas Markets – supply, demand and competition | Thursday 21st May | 11:15 – 1:00pm

Presenter:  Martin Wilkes – Managing Director

This presentation will show how the Australian LNG industry and domestic gas prices will be affected by the rise of the North American LNG export industry. The changing dynamics of the LNG supply, demand and price relationships due to the flood of shale gas production in North America will have a profound impact on the future of the Australian LNG exporters and domestic gas markets. Rapid increases in gas production in North America has reduced domestic gas prices and driven the emergence of an LNG export industry. The emergence of a significant volume of LNG exports from North America, as well as the new LNG pricing model being offered by the exporters, has changed the outlook for LNG suppliers and buyers.

New greenfield LNG projects in Australia are unlikely to be competitive in the new LNG price landscape, and even backfill projects may struggle. If these projects cannot proceed, the impact on domestic gas markets will be to reduce supply at a time when new supply is increasingly important. The likelihood of LNG imports into South-eastern Australia will rise as a result of the new outlook. This presentation will use a “bottom up” analysis of the global LNG supply landscape to forecast LNG prices and consequently Australian domestic gas prices. The impact of reduced LNG prices and exports from Australia will be devastating for the future PRRT and royalty revenues relied on by state and federal governments; this impact will also be detailed in the presentation.

If you’d like to organise a meeting with any of our personnel please forward your requests to admin@riscadvisory.com or head over to the contact us page of our website and fill out an enquiry form.